The distinguished climate scientists Thomas Anderson, Ed Hawkins and Phil Jones addressed this issue raised by some climate sceptics who thought that the climate system was too complex for meaningful analysis by ESMs. In a deeply researched paper Anderson, Hawkins and Jones totally repudiated such a view.
They concluded that ESMs were essentially trustworthy and had made a compelling case that global climate would continue to undergo significant warming in response to ongoing emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. This was even in the best scenario of reducing emissions.
Endeavour, July 2016 (online)